Worldwide High Performance Computing 2017 Total Market Model and 2018–2022 Forecast: Vertical Markets

September 25, 2018|Addison Snell, Christopher G. Willard Ph.D., Laura Segervall

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2017 total market model and five-year forecast for the overall High
Performance Computing (HPC) market, segmented into vertical markets across industry, government, and academia. The
forecast horizon is from 2018 through 2022, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) using 2017 as a base.

Intersect360 Research defines HPC as the use of servers, clusters, and supercomputers—plus associated software,
tools, components, storage, and services—for scientific, engineering, or analytical tasks that are
particularly intensive in computation, memory usage, or data management. Intersect360 Research reports available in
this series include the following segmentations:

Products and Services: servers, storage, networks, software, service, cloud, other
Economic sectors: industry, government, academia
Vertical markets (this report): academia, national security, national research labs, national agencies, state or
local governments, bio sciences,
chemical engineering, consumer product manufacturing, electronics, energy, financial services, large product
manufacturing, media and entertainment,
retail, transportation, other
Regions: North America, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, Latin America
Server class (HPC server revenue): entry-level, midrange, high-end, supercomputer
Cloud categories (HPC cloud revenue): raw cycles, cloud storage, application hosting (SaaS), infrastructure
hosting (IaaS, PaaS), other
Software categories (HPC software revenue): operating environments, developer tools, middleware, storage
software, transfer costs, application
software, other
Services categories (HPC services revenue): maintenance and repair, system engineering, system integration,
training, programming services, other
HPC server market shares (current year only, not forecast)
HPC storage market shares (current year only, not forecast)

This was an unusual year for the HPC market, with mixed results across economic sectors and across product and
services categories, in which the stable-seeming
1.6% year-over-year growth rate belies an underlying dynamic market. Total HPC market revenue was $35.4 billion in
2017, with growth driven primarily
by commercial vertical markets. Chemical engineering and financial services posted some of the biggest gains in
2017.

The HPC market will grow at a 6.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2017 through 2022. The industrial sector
will continue to be the primary
engine of growth for the HPC market. 70% of the total HPC market incremental revenue over the next five years will
come from industry. By the end
of the forecast period, the commercial vertical markets will represent 60% of all HPC market revenue.

TECHNOLOGIES COVERED IN THIS REPORT

HPC system elements

Systems, clusters

Server technologies

Storage elements

Storage systems

Interconnect elements

System interconnects

Software elements

Operating systems

Services

Cloud computing, grid computing, utility computing

Other technology trends

Big Data trends

Government programs or investment in HPC

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY……….. 1

TECHNOLOGIES COVERED IN THIS REPORT……….. 2

INTRODUCTION……….. 4

What Is HPC?…….. 6

HPC 2017 TOTAL MARKET MODEL: VERTICAL MARKETS……….. 7

2017 Market Performance…….. 7

Table 1: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2017 vs. 2016, by Vertical Market…….. 8

2016–2021 HPC MARKET FORECAST: VERTICAL MARKETS……….. 10

Table 2: Total HPC Market Revenue 2018 to 2022 Forecast, by Vertical Market…….. 10

Figure 1: Total HPC Market Revenue 2018 to 2022 Forecast, by Vertical Market…….. 11

Figure 2: Incremental HPC Market Revenue, 2018 to 2022 Forecast, by Economic Sector…….. 12

CONCLUSIONS……….. 13

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY……….. 14

Methodology Updates…….. 14

APPENDIX B: HPC MARKET DYNAMICS MODEL AND FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS……….. 16

Market Maturity…….. 16

Fundamental Market Dynamics Model…….. 16

Figure A1: Traditional HPC Market Dynamics…….. 17

Fundamental Market Assumptions…….. 18

Fundamental Drivers…….. 18

Fundamental Market Dampeners…….. 19

Model-Based Assumptions…….. 20

Basic Market Drivers…….. 20

Basic Market Dampeners…….. 20

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